Ex-Marine General Says Iran Deal Won’t End the War, Warns of Rogue Escalation

Retired U.S. Marine Corps General John M. Jensen, a former deputy commandant and now senior adviser to Israeli defense-tech fund Kinetica, says the war with Iran is far from over despite the emerging ceasefire understanding. In an exclusive interview published by N12 on June 18, 2026, he argued that the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign was a military success, but not a strategic victory. Asked whether Washington and Jerusalem achieved their main goals, he answered, "Absolutely not," adding that the core objectives remain unmet.

Jensen said the agreement only creates a 60-day window for deeper talks, including the fate of 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, which international assessments say is enough material for roughly 10 nuclear bombs if taken to weapons grade. He warned that the material may still be inside Iran in a year, possibly hidden under the ground at Isfahan after strikes on Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow during Operation Rising Lion. In his view, Iran can rebuild its nuclear program with existing knowledge and help from Russia and China.

He also said the real danger now may be internal instability in Tehran. According to Jensen, rival centers of power inside the regime, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, could act independently of the government and trigger "unplanned escalation with Israel, with Gulf states, or with other targets in the region." He said Hezbollah is the best indicator of whether Iran is recovering, because it cannot function without Iranian backing. He also pointed to the unresolved uranium stockpile and the question of who truly controls Iran as key tests.

Jensen said he was surprised by the weakness of Russian-supplied air defenses and by Iran’s ability to keep launching large numbers of missiles and drones throughout the war. He called the campaign "a competition of wills," not just weapons, and said most military objectives were achieved, including setbacks to Iran’s missile program, air defenses, and navy. But he said the deeper strategic struggle continues, and that the war ultimately exposed that, in his words, "It was never about Hezbollah. It was never about Hamas. It was always about Iran."