Trump's Iran Conflict Echoes 'Endless Wars' Post-9/11
As the anniversary of the September 11th attacks approaches, President Donald Trump's conflict with Iran is drawing comparisons to the protracted and divisive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Analysts suggest this could become Trump's own version of 'endless wars,' raising questions about whether the U.S. has learned from past conflicts or developed a clear exit strategy. Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy noted that Trump has broken a significant post-Iraq and Afghanistan constraint in Washington: avoiding large, open-ended new wars in the Middle East, potentially leaving a deeply rooted U.S. confrontation for his successor.
U.S. administration officials contend the conflict with Iran differs from the post-9/11 military engagements. Unlike the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, which involved overthrowing governments, extensive troop deployments, and significant casualties, the current approach relies primarily on air and naval power. While these actions have inflicted military and economic damage on Iran, they have not led to its defeat or the overthrow of its leadership as Trump initially urged. Six months into the conflict, the U.S. is engaged in a war of attrition marked by retaliatory actions, such as recent attacks on oil tankers, as Trump tightens economic pressure on Tehran.
Analysts warn the conflict may extend beyond the November midterm elections, potentially harming the Republican Party's chances of retaining congressional control due to voter opposition. Similar to previous wars, a clear exit strategy is absent, despite increasing economic burdens on American consumers, exemplified by rising gas prices due to Iran's disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has also reportedly weakened Trump's approval ratings and diminished Washington's international standing.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated Trump "had the courage" to confront Iran over its nuclear program, asserting he achieved all his objectives and that Iran's economy is under severe pressure from sanctions and a U.S. naval blockade. Kelly did not directly address questions about the conflict's link to the legacy of post-9/11 U.S. military interventions.
Analysts argue Trump has failed to learn key lessons from the post-9/11 era, including the severe political consequences of prolonged wars and the risks posed by ideologically driven adversaries. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, initiated based on flawed intelligence, exhausted U.S. forces and destabilized the Middle East. Trump's rise was partly fueled by public opposition to these wars, and he had pledged to avoid military adventures. Critics argue, like the Bush administration before him, Trump and his aides misjudged Iran's resilience and its ability to disrupt global energy supplies. The "Operation Epic Resolve" in February, a joint operation with Israel, was seen by critics as an optional war, not driven by national shock like 9/11, and experts questioned Trump's claims of an imminent threat from Iran's nuclear program.
Iran may be drawing inspiration from the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan, suggesting a determined adversary can withstand a militarily superior Washington until domestic pressure weakens its resolve. The conflict has also highlighted the cost of fighting with limited allied support. While Bush secured international backing for Iraq and Afghanistan, Trump attacked Iran without prior consultation or significant justification, facing resistance from European and Asian leaders. Trump's strained relationships with allies, due to his rhetoric and policies, further complicated matters.
The Iran conflict's regional repercussions, including Iranian attacks on U.S. allies in the Gulf, have surprised Washington, mirroring the unexpected regional fallout of the Iraq invasion. Gulf nations are quietly seeking to contain an escalation they did not desire, with one unnamed official lamenting a repetition of mistakes from the post-9/11 wars and questioning the U.S. strategy. Saudi analyst Aziz Al-Ghashian noted Gulf states feel powerless against U.S.-instigated conflicts.
Unlike the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, which began with strong U.S. public support, Trump's conflict with Iran faced widespread opposition from the outset. Trump initially expected a swift victory, similar to the January 3rd operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. However, the campaign against Iran has devolved into a concerning stalemate, failing to achieve most of Trump's shifting objectives, including ending Iran's nuclear program, and depleting Pentagon missile stockpiles. Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argues that the conflict is a response to a 47-year war initiated by the Islamic Republic against America, asserting that Trump has achieved successes that will ultimately lead to victory.
