Erdogan Builds Sunni Alliance Around Israel to Challenge Regional Order

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is orchestrating a significant regional shift around Israel, moving beyond the conventional focus on controlling airfields in Syria. The recent Israeli strike in Syria highlights a broader strategic challenge: Turkey is capitalizing on the weakening Iranian axis, the US-Iran stalemate, and widespread Arab hostility toward Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to reshape the Middle East's power dynamics.

In recent weeks, Erdogan signed a trilateral defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which treats an attack on one as an attack on all, likened by Turkey's foreign minister to NATO's Article 5. This pact aims to replace the fractured Shia ring surrounding Israel with a Sunni alliance combining Saudi financial power, Turkish military industry, and Pakistan's nuclear umbrella. Erdogan is also courting Egypt, gaining influence in Gaza, and establishing a foothold in Syria, where Turkey's deployment of air defenses and radars is designed to restrict Israel's air superiority, a critical strategic asset.

Turkey's moves in Gaza seek a role in future governance and reconstruction, positioning Ankara as a Palestinian interlocutor with Israel. In Cairo, Erdogan aims to overcome Egypt's historical reservations about Ottoman ambitions. The overarching goal is to transform the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from an American asset into a Turkish one, thereby boosting Turkey's leadership in the Arab and Muslim worlds.

The article argues that while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu faces deep distrust, especially ahead of elections, the Israeli strike against Turkey's positions in Syria was justified to draw a clear red line. However, the ongoing failure to resolve the Gaza conflict and Hamas's continued rule have created the vacuum Turkey now fills. This emerging Sunni axis poses a far greater strategic risk than the isolated and internationally ostracized Iranian axis, as Turkey is a NATO member, a major European trade partner, and holds legitimacy in the Arab world.

Israeli military actions in Syria may only delay Turkey's advances temporarily and risk confrontation with NATO forces. The article calls for a new regional policy involving ending Hamas's rule in Gaza, renewing practical alliances with Egypt and Jordan, strengthening ties with Greece, Cyprus, and India, and reengaging in diplomatic efforts from which Israel has been absent for three years. It concludes that the current Israeli government is incapable of such a strategy due to political constraints and lost trust, and that meaningful change will only come after its departure.