Erdogan Builds New Sunni Axis Around Israel Challenging Regional Balance

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is orchestrating a significant regional strategy that extends beyond recent airstrikes in Syria. Exploiting Iran's weakening influence and a regional power vacuum, Turkey is establishing a new Sunni axis by expanding its presence in Syria and Gaza, while challenging Israel's freedom of action. Erdogan aims to position Israel not as a direct target but as a leverage point to lead the Arab League and the broader Muslim world under his leadership.

In Gaza, Ankara seeks a role in future governance, security, and reconstruction mechanisms, asserting itself as a representative voice for Palestinians in negotiations with Israel. Concurrently, Turkey is courting Egypt to overcome Cairo's historical reservations about Ottoman ambitions, aiming to form a partnership that would legitimize its regional aspirations. The overarching goal is to transform the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from an American asset into a Turkish one.

Despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's deep mistrust of Erdogan's intentions, the recent targeted strikes against Turkish positions in Syria are seen as justified attempts to draw clear boundaries before Turkey's influence becomes irreversible. However, the ongoing failure of Israeli diplomacy, the persistence of Hamas rule in Gaza, and the absence of a political solution have created fertile ground for Turkey's advances.

This emerging Turkish axis poses a far greater strategic risk than the Iranian axis, which was isolated and easier to confront. Turkey, a NATO member with strong economic ties to Europe and legitimacy in the Arab world, commands advanced defense industries and does not carry the stigma of Shiite terrorism. Unlike Iran, Turkey's regional coalition is likely to unite against Israel. Military strikes in Syria may only delay Turkey's progress temporarily and risk direct conflict with NATO forces.

The article argues that Israel urgently needs a new regional policy: ending Hamas's rule in Gaza with a political horizon, renewing practical alliances with Egypt and Jordan, deepening ties with Greece, Cyprus, and India, and reengaging in diplomacy after three years of absence. The current Israeli government is deemed incapable of such a strategy due to coalition constraints, political risk aversion, and lost domestic and international trust. Meaningful change is expected only after this government departs.