31 Likud Ministers and MKs Compete for 17 Seats in Crucial Primaries

The Likud party held its primary elections on August 18, 2026, with 31 incumbent ministers and Knesset members vying for only 17 realistic spots on the party list. The contest highlighted a longstanding internal struggle between organized party factions, including union representatives, local leaders, and religious group commanders, and what the party calls "free votes", voters not bound to recommended slates. About 40% of Likud members are estimated to belong to organized groups that bring pre-prepared recommended candidate lists to the polls.

Notable candidates like Tali Gottlieb, Amichai Shikli, and Amit Halevi targeted independent voters rather than relying on bloc support. A prominent example of organized influence was seen in the Nation Buildings complex, where ultra-Orthodox group leaders coordinated a structured voting effort, distributing recommended candidate lists to members. Some of these commanders also hold positions in ultra-Orthodox parties. Minister Miri Regev claimed she was targeted for political elimination during the primaries.

The voting system allowed each member to select only 12 candidates, creating strategic voting dynamics where supporters might withhold votes from perceived safe candidates to help those at risk. The ultra-Orthodox turnout was particularly significant amid the contentious issue of the military draft law. An Agam Labs poll showed over 80% of Likud voters support increasing ultra-Orthodox enlistment, compared to about 65% among party members who vote in primaries. This gap is critical for Netanyahu ahead of general elections, as the primary electorate does not fully represent the broader voter base.

Another divide emerged over government preferences: 54.9% of Likud voters favor a more centrist government than the current coalition, while only about a third of primary voters want a center-right government. With roughly 20% of the electorate still undecided, Netanyahu faces the challenge of forming a list that can regain lost supporters.

The primary results, determined by manual counting under close supervision, may still face legal challenges due to complaints about ballots and technical issues. The final list will reveal the balance of power between party deals and free votes, the ideological direction rewarded by members, and how many incumbents were ousted. It will also indicate how closely the chosen slate aligns with Netanyahu’s preferences.