Likud Primaries Shake Up Party as Several Ministers and MKs Face Losing Seats

The ongoing vote count in the Likud primaries reveals significant upheaval, with several incumbent ministers and Knesset members likely to lose their seats in the next Knesset. Notable figures currently outside realistic winning positions include Ministers May Golan, Idith Silman, Avi Dichter, and MKs Hanoch Milwitsky, Nissim Vaturi, Ariel Kallner, and Shason Guetta. This represents a major shakeup within the Likud faction, as many of these politicians have been closely associated with the coalition in recent years but now face the consequences of the unusually crowded party list.

The challenge is compounded by the party’s complex list structure, which includes reserved slots for ministers and regional representatives, leaving fewer realistic spots for candidates on the general national list. Reports indicate that the 15th place on the national list is currently the critical cutoff point for securing a seat, with additional candidates entering through other list mechanisms.

A particularly intense contest is unfolding between Ministers Nir Barkat and Ze'ev Elkin over the last realistic spot. With about 75% of votes counted, the margin between them is roughly 300 votes, a narrow gap that could still change as counting continues. Barkat’s campaign has been politically charged following allegations that he attempted to orchestrate a leadership change against Netanyahu after October 7, which he denies, claiming a political assassination attempt ahead of the primaries. Elkin, who recently returned to Likud after years away, risks being excluded from the Knesset in his first primary run since rejoining the party.