Gadi Eizenkot's Yisrael Im Leads Mandate Poll as Third Bloc Collapses, Winter Scenario Examined

A new News 12 poll published on August 17, 2026, shows that if elections were held today, the party Yisrael Im, led by Gadi Eizenkot, would be the largest with 24 mandates, maintaining its strength from the previous poll. The Likud party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu who recently celebrated its primaries, ranks second with 22 mandates. Other parties passing the electoral threshold include Yachdut with 15 mandates, the Democrats with 11, Yisrael Beiteinu with 10, Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism each with 8, Shas with 7, and both Religious Zionism and the Arab parties Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am with 5 mandates each.

The so-called "third bloc" of parties remains below the electoral threshold, with all its parties failing to enter the Knesset. Notably, Balad receives 1.8%, and the Unity party led by Gilad Erdan gets 1.7%. The poll also highlights that the anti-Netanyahu bloc holds 70 mandates, including 60 from Zionist opposition parties and 10 from Arab parties, while the coalition parties have only 50 mandates.

In a scenario where retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter enters politics and leads a new party, his party fails to cross the threshold, causing Religious Zionism to drop below it as well. This scenario increases the opposition bloc to 73 mandates and reduces the coalition to 47. Yisrael Im strengthens to 26 mandates, Likud to 24, and Yachdut to 16, while other parties remain stable.

Another scenario tested the impact of Hili Tropper joining Yisrael Im after the Zionist Union party decides not to run. This move would increase Yisrael Im to 25 mandates, with Likud and Yachdut maintaining their numbers, and Yisrael Beiteinu dropping to 9 mandates. The bloc distribution remains unchanged at 70 opposition and 50 coalition mandates.

Regarding suitability for prime minister, Eizenkot leads Netanyahu 38% to 34%. Netanyahu leads over Yachdut leader Naftali Bennett 35% to 34%, and over Avigdor Lieberman 35% to 24%. A majority of 52% say the party list composition influences their vote, especially among opposition and third bloc voters (66%). Among opposition voters, 55% believe the largest party leader should be the bloc's prime minister candidate.

The poll was conducted by Meno Geva's Consulting and Research on August 17, 2026, with a representative sample of 501 respondents aged 18 and over, using internet and telephone methods, with a margin of error of ±4.4%.