Amit Segal says Israel was trapped into an Iranian confrontation

Commentator Amit Segal said on Monday evening that recent events show the opposite of “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory,” arguing that Iran has reason to celebrate as the coalition between the United States and Israel is, in his view, unraveling. He said the Hezbollah strike that preceded Israel’s attack in Beirut’s Dahieh district leaves two explanations, either Hezbollah turned on its Iranian patron, which he called implausible, or Iran deliberately tried to drive a wedge between Israel and the United States.

Segal described the mechanism as simple and harsh, if Israel did not answer Hezbollah fire with an attack on Beirut, a new precedent would be set, but if it did respond, Donald Trump would be angered. “And that is exactly what happened here,” he said, adding that Israel struck Dahieh twice despite Trump. He argued that Israel’s only option in the region is to hit back if attacked by Iran, otherwise “all the great achievements of the war will go to waste.”

He said the Dahieh strike was relatively precise, stressing that “not buildings fell, not ten, not 20 and not 30,” because Trump does not like seeing buildings collapse. He cited Henry Kissinger’s line that being America’s enemy is a problem, but being its friend is a disaster. On ballistic missiles, Segal said the war had reduced Iran to about 1,000 ballistic missiles and no production capability, instead of thousands with factories producing 10 missiles a day.

He recalled Iran’s April 2024 barrage of hundreds of missiles and UAVs after the killing of one Iranian figure near the embassy in Damascus, and later attacks after the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Responding to critics in the opposition, Segal said they should name a date when they would have chosen differently, and asked whether anyone would have rejected a joint Trump offer to strike Iran. He also dismissed what he called populism on both extremes, those demanding attacks on the “head of the octopus” and those paralyzed by fear of striking Iran. He concluded that Israel’s military position is better than a year ago, even if its strategic situation is more complicated.