Analyst: US-Iran framework may be a trap, and Israel must stay on guard

Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur, a former senior intelligence officer in the Navy and Middle East expert, said on Monday that the emerging US-Iran understanding is so unusual that it raises doubts in Jerusalem’s security establishment. Speaking on "Israel Morning" with Tal Meir, he warned that it should be described as a "framework agreement," not a final deal, because "everything can still turn around" in the Middle East.

Yagur argued that the apparent concessions clash with Donald Trump’s personality, saying the president has repeatedly been insulted by Iran, including alleged assassination attempts against him and his family. "Something very strange is happening here," he said, and added that Trump “cannot tolerate” personal humiliation. He also pointed to support for Israel inside the Trump camp, mentioning Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, Lindsey Graham, evangelical voters and some MAGA supporters, and said their voices have been almost absent from the current process, as has Israel’s.

He said the agreement, as it stands, could strengthen the old regional order and weaken Israel’s push for a new one. Two unresolved issues, he said, are already sources of friction, the Strait of Hormuz, where Washington and Tehran appear to describe very different outcomes, and Lebanon, where Iran speaks of halting activity and even withdrawal, while Israel has not heard clear American commitments.

Yagur also suggested that comparing the emerging deal to Barack Obama’s policies could pressure Trump, because he strongly dislikes such comparisons and wants to protect his legacy. He ended by urging Israel not to wait for Washington, but to speed up military action, especially in Gaza and Lebanon, saying Israel should finish the war in Gaza and continue in Lebanon as if there were no agreement.