Analyst Warns U.S.-Iran Understanding Could Trigger Wider Regional Concessions

Middle East analyst Yoni Ben Menachem warned in a Tuesday interview with Oded Menashe that the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran could have dangerous strategic consequences for Israel and the wider region. He said the move does not only strengthen Iran, but also Qatar, which he described as seeking to displace Saudi Arabia as the region’s leading power.

Ben Menachem argued that Gulf states do not want a military clash with Tehran because they see the United States as helping Iran. He said Iran’s ballistic missiles threaten Gulf oil and water infrastructure, and that those states are now deeply concerned because Iran is also receiving money.

He said Qatar, despite being a small country, has ambitions to lead Middle East policy and is already being discussed as a possible host for a Doha conference that would effectively replace Saudi Arabia’s role in shaping a settlement in Lebanon. In his view, that effort would be coordinated with Iran and would be “very dangerous.”

The main risk for Israel, he said, is that pressure over a withdrawal from southern Lebanon could become a precedent. Ben Menachem said he was already hearing from Hamas that Qatar had promised the next step would be an Israeli withdrawal from all of Gaza, followed later by Judea and Samaria, as part of a path toward a Palestinian state. He urged Israel to stop the trend now and not withdraw from southern Lebanon, saying, “We need to stop the slide,” and added that it may be better to enter into a confrontation over southern Lebanon before the issue spreads to other fronts.