Most Israelis Doubt Hamas Will Disarm Despite Trump Plan, Survey Shows
A new August survey by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) reveals widespread Israeli skepticism about the feasibility of disarming Hamas in Gaza as proposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump. Overall, 58% of Israelis believe the agreement to dismantle Hamas's weapons will not be realized, with pessimism even higher among Jewish respondents at 63%. Only 3% of Israelis expect Hamas to fully disarm and for Israel to withdraw entirely from Gaza, a scenario nearly nonexistent among Jews. Another 15% foresee partial disarmament and partial Israeli withdrawal. This skepticism crosses political and religious lines, reflecting a broad consensus.
Regarding the future of the West Bank (Judea and Samaria), the survey presented ten options grouped into annexation, division, transfer, or maintaining the status quo. Thirty-seven percent of Israelis support full annexation of the territory, 30% favor dividing it between Israel and Jordan or a Palestinian state, 10% support transferring all land, and 12% prefer the current situation. Among Jews, 38% back full annexation and 35% division. The most popular annexation option among Jews (22%) involves annexing the land while transferring the Arab population elsewhere. Twenty-one percent support annexing areas with Jewish majorities and establishing a Palestinian state in Arab-majority areas. Notably, 19% of Arab Israeli respondents support annexation with full citizenship rights.
The survey also explored attitudes toward Jewish settlements and outposts in the West Bank. Opinions are divided: 36% see them as a security burden on the Israeli military, while another 36% strongly disagree. Among Jews, 43% reject the notion that settlements are a burden, with right-wing Israelis overwhelmingly opposing the claim and left-wing Israelis largely agreeing.
When asked about demographic priorities, 55% of Israelis (60% of Jews) prefer maintaining a Jewish majority in Israel even if it means relinquishing some land. Conversely, 24% of Israelis (22% of Jews) prioritize sovereignty over the entire land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, even without a Jewish majority. Religious and right-wing respondents are more likely to prioritize land over demographic majority, while secular and center-left voters emphasize maintaining a Jewish majority.
JPPI President Prof. Yedidia Stern commented that the findings reflect deep Israeli pessimism about Hamas relinquishing control of Gaza, not a preference for prolonged occupation. He noted the lack of public discourse on this issue and questioned whether the next government could propose practical, credible solutions.
