Iran Bets on Prolonged Strait of Hormuz Closure to Pressure Trump Administration

Iran is wagering that its extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting impact on global fuel prices will force the Trump administration to concede to its demands. Tehran believes the strategic leverage gained by controlling the strait diverts attention from core issues and corners the U.S. into a position where withdrawal is the only option. However, this strategy carries significant internal and economic risks for Iran. American and Israeli strikes have damaged parts of Iran's industry and economy, causing unprecedented food inflation and prompting threats from Trump to target additional civilian infrastructure.

Moderate Iranian figures, including former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, warn that ignoring the economic crisis could trigger a collapse and popular protests that might destabilize the regime. Meanwhile, Iran has set stringent conditions for reopening the strait in talks with Oman, demanding a complete end to hostilities, lifting of the naval blockade, U.S. troop withdrawal, full war damage compensation, sanctions removal, and release of frozen assets. President Trump has firmly rejected any Iranian control or toll collection over this critical maritime passage.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai announced that Tehran is not currently considering charging fees for ships passing through the strait. He emphasized that reopening the key shipping route depends on halting what Iran calls "illegal actions" by the U.S., lifting the maritime blockade, and compensation for damages. Iran blames U.S. and Israeli attacks for the initial closure of the strait. Negotiations with Oman on securing safe maritime transit are reportedly progressing well, with parties agreeing on a roadmap and discussing technical details such as monitoring mechanisms, environmental protection, and combating maritime crime. Baghai noted that costs and fees for maritime services will be covered as part of these arrangements.