JPPI Survey: Most Israelis See Internal Division as the Biggest Threat, While Ultra-Orthodox Opposition to Draft Remains High

The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) released its annual 2026 report on Israeli society at its conference today, based on the institute’s surveys and analysis from the past year, plus dedicated polling. The report examines internal trends in Israel through three core measures, agreement, closeness, and hope, and also covers political, social, and security issues.

The strongest warning sign in the report is domestic polarization. A majority of Israelis, 55%, say internal division and conflict are the most dangerous threat to Israel’s continued existence, far ahead of an Iranian nuclear bomb, cited by 23%, and the conflict with the Palestinians, cited by 18%. Sixty percent agree there is now a real danger of bloodshed and physical violence inside the country, effectively civil war.

The report also highlights the deep divide between secular and ultra-Orthodox Israelis. While 80% of the public supports drafting ultra-Orthodox men, 79% of ultra-Orthodox respondents oppose enlistment even if special separate frameworks are offered. JPPI says the ultra-Orthodox receive the lowest average “closeness” score among population groups, 3.79, while secular Israelis give them an especially low 1.81 out of 10.

On security, confidence in the military leadership has reached 82% after the move to a direct regional campaign, codenamed “Operation Lion’s Roar,” and the replacement of the chief of staff. At the same time, many Israelis remain skeptical about Gaza, expect Hamas to survive in some form, and are disappointed that the Trump plan has not yet disarmed Hamas or produced substantial reconstruction despite the ceasefire and hostage return. The war has also pushed Jewish public opinion to the right, with self-identified “deep right” voters rising from 11% before the war to 19% now.

JPPI president Prof. Yedidya Stern said Israeli society shows “resilience, determination and optimism,” but is also “shattered” and deeply anxious about structural breakdown. He called for a long-term plan to reduce social volatility, broad post-election coalition-building, and a “thin constitution” to set fair rules for political conflict without deciding ideological questions.