Hapoel Be'er Sheva Upsets Red Star Belgrade, Opens Door for Champions League Playoffs

Hapoel Be'er Sheva secured a crucial 1-0 victory over Red Star Belgrade on Tuesday night, significantly improving their chances of advancing in the Champions League qualifiers. The win, achieved under coach Ran Kojuch, sets up a decisive second leg match next Wednesday at the Marakana stadium in Belgrade.

Following this result, the Football Meets Data algorithm adjusted its forecast, now giving Be'er Sheva a 50% probability of progressing to the next round, up from 33% before the first leg. The model assigns a 24% chance to a Be'er Sheva win and a 24% chance to a draw in the upcoming match. If Red Star wins by a one-goal margin, the tie is expected to be decided by penalties. The most likely scoreline predicted for the second leg is a 1-1 draw.

Looking ahead, the algorithm anticipates that Be'er Sheva will win the tie, advance to the Champions League playoff round, but eventually lose to the winner of the Aarhus versus Sabah matchup. Despite this forecast, the recent victory demonstrates that the Israeli champions cannot be underestimated in their European campaign.