Israel Worries Iran Deal Could End Lebanon Fighting Without a Clear Outcome

Israeli military officials said Saturday they are uneasy about a likely understanding between the United States and Iran that could be signed in the coming days. Their concern is that Iran may receive more than $200 billion, most of it potentially directed toward nuclear and missile development, including more ballistic missiles, more launchers, and a nuclear program pushed even deeper underground.

At the same time, Israeli assessments suggest that efforts to separate the Iranian arena from Hezbollah in Lebanon have failed, despite attempts to stop U.S. President Donald Trump from entering the war against Hezbollah. Iran is demanding, and is expected to obtain, a total halt to the fighting in Lebanon.

Tehran is also expected to press for an Israeli withdrawal from the "yellow line," the security belt the IDF established in February. As the IDF advances north after capturing Beaufort, with the goal of completing control of the entire ridge, there is now uncertainty over whether Israel can preserve freedom of action in Lebanon.

Talks between Israel and Lebanon over a memorandum of understanding are still ongoing. The current discussion centers on the IDF remaining, for now, at the key positions it holds in southern Lebanon, while a mutual and complete ceasefire is declared.