US-Iran Deal Raises Alarm in Lebanon and the Gulf

The United States and Iran are moving toward a new agreement after outlining its main terms, but the deal is already drawing concern in Israel, Lebanon and across the Arab Gulf. President Donald Trump remains optimistic that the arrangement can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, yet critics say several of its clauses could destabilize the region.

At the core of the emerging deal is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the release of frozen Iranian assets worth billions of dollars, possibly tens of billions. According to estimates cited in the report, Tehran is demanding about $12 billion from roughly $24 billion to $25 billion frozen in Qatari accounts as soon as implementation begins. Iran is expected to use the money to rebuild the country while continuing to collect fees from ships passing through Hormuz, with no limits on its missile program or military.

The agreement also does not appear to place restrictions on Iran’s regional proxies. The ceasefire, set to be extended from April, would also apply to Lebanon, but it does not forbid Hezbollah activity or impose limits beyond a certain line. Hezbollah supporters and Lebanese residents who fled their homes during the war welcomed the possibility of returning, and on Monday people were seen heading back to evacuated areas while bulldozers cleared rubble.

In Beirut, the government is deeply worried. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam fear that binding Lebanon to the deal without conditions will allow Iran to keep arming Hezbollah and interfering in Lebanese affairs. The nuclear issue itself remains unresolved, including the fate of highly enriched material still buried under damaged facilities. Tehran says it wants to keep the material and dilute it, while the U.S. position had originally sought a suspension of uranium enrichment for more than 10 years. Gulf states, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, also fear a stronger Iran after the agreement, even as they welcome an end to the fighting.