Israeli Intelligence Veterans Warn of Rising Civil Conflict Threat Amid Political Polarization

Two retired Shin Bet officials, Haim Manor and Avi Moshevi, have issued a stark warning about the growing risk of civil war in Israel, emphasizing that the greatest threat to the nation’s existence comes not from external enemies like Iran or its proxies, but from internal mutual self-hatred. Their analysis appears in the latest issue of the Intelligence Heritage Center’s journal, "Mabat Melam," which is distributed exclusively among former members of Israel’s intelligence community, including Mossad, Shin Bet, Aman, and others.

Manor and Moshevi note that while Israel is not currently on an inevitable path to civil war, it is not immune to such a scenario. They highlight the dangerous political polarization, declining public trust in state institutions, and escalating delegitimization rhetoric between opposing factions as factors that could ignite internal conflict. The authors recall historical precedents of internal strife in Jewish history and Israel’s own near-civil war moments, such as the Altalena Affair and the assassinations of Emil Grunzweig and Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

The article also addresses intelligence failures related to the October 7 attacks and warns of increased threats along the Sharon frontline, urging vigilance against lone attackers and organized cells. Manor and Moshevi propose a series of preventive mechanisms involving the political leadership, judiciary, police, Shin Bet, education system, media, and the president to avert a national disaster.

They stress that Israeli law is unprepared for the possibility of civil war, and that the political leadership must act responsibly to prevent escalation. The authors’ warning aligns with recent calls by President Isaac Herzog to calm the increasingly volatile election atmosphere. The article concludes with a call to disseminate this urgent message widely, underscoring that the internal enemy of unchecked mutual hatred poses the most serious existential threat to Israel today.