Israeli Government Policies Fuel Rising Violence in West Bank, Risking Third Intifada

Recent weekend clashes in the West Bank have sparked debate over whether these events mark the beginning of a third intifada or a containable outbreak of violence. Israel's security apparatus has historically struggled to predict such uprisings, having failed to foresee the first intifada in 1987 and inadequately prepared for the second in 2000. The potential third intifada, however, would differ significantly as it appears to be driven by the current Israeli government's policies and vision.

The government has been accused of passivity and paralysis, but regarding Arab affairs, it has actively instigated tensions, including provoking Hezbollah in Lebanon. This strategy backfired, leading to drone attacks and casualties among Israeli soldiers, as well as renewed instability in northern Israel. Meanwhile, in the West Bank, three competing narratives have emerged following recent violence near the Givat Gilad outpost: one portraying a peaceful civilian visit disrupted by a deadly attack, another describing an uncoordinated settler incursion met with violent Palestinian resistance, and a third accusing Jewish lawbreakers of provoking conflict in Palestinian villages.

Each narrative is used to justify different political demands, from military operations to administrative detentions. The article proposes a fourth narrative: these incidents are not isolated but part of a deliberate government plan to transform illegal outposts into legalized farms, displacing Palestinian farmers and forcing them into cities, potentially leading to mass transfer. This vision is religious, ideological, political, and military, supported by government ministers and settlers alike.

The Israeli military, particularly the Central Command, is criticized for ignoring this broader context, treating incidents as isolated tragedies rather than symptoms of a systemic policy. The article warns that if the recent violence escalates into a full intifada, the IDF will share responsibility for the ensuing bloodshed. The military commander, Major General Avi Blot, is urged to uphold his legal and ethical duties to maintain order and protect all residents in Area C, beyond political pressures and ideological agendas, before his planned retirement at the end of the year.