Erdogan Plans to Expand Influence in Lebanon Amid Regional Turmoil
Since the outbreak of conflict on October 7, 2023, the Middle East has experienced numerous shifts, many involving Israel directly or indirectly. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has orchestrated a strategic move by deploying his proxy in Syria, Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), to overthrow Bashar al-Assad shortly after Israel's Operation Northern Arrow against Hezbollah. Ankara calculated that with Russia bogged down in Ukraine and Iran weakened, no force could halt their advance.
Al-Shara's rise in Syria is a result of sustained Turkish support, including funding, foreign fighters, and supplies. Despite his brief tenure, Israel is now engaging directly with Lebanon's government, signing framework agreements, while Hezbollah struggles to regain control in southern Lebanon. The West views al-Shara as a negotiable figure, prompting former U.S. President Donald Trump to suggest at the G7 summit that Syria could handle Hezbollah, claiming al-Shara "would do a better job than Israel."
This proposal aligns with Turkey's neo-Ottoman foreign policy ambitions. Erdogan aims to leverage weakened Hezbollah to inject significant capital into Lebanon's reconstruction and introduce Turkish companies, while also seeking to strengthen ties with the U.S. for acquiring F-35 jets. Turkey's expanding influence is evident in its military presence in Somalia and Libya, and now it is actively courting Lebanon's leadership, including hosting Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and potentially receiving President Joseph Aoun in Ankara.
Israel faces a critical challenge as al-Shara's forces, bolstered by Turkish arms and troops, may invade Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah. This would extend Turkish-backed Syrian military influence into Lebanon, complicating Israel's security environment. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's upcoming Washington visit and meeting with Trump could be a pivotal moment to counter this Turkish initiative before it gains irreversible momentum.
In summary, Erdogan's strategy seeks to replace Hezbollah's dominance in Lebanon with Turkish-backed proxies, reshaping regional power dynamics and posing new challenges for Israel and its allies.
