Gadi Eizenkot’s Yisrael Beiteinu Surges as Likud Hits New Low in July Poll

A new poll conducted by the Lazar Research Institute for Maariv reveals a significant shift in Israel’s political landscape as of late July. The ruling Likud party has dropped to its lowest support since June last year, securing only 20 Knesset seats. Meanwhile, Gadi Eizenkot’s party, Yisrael Beiteinu, has surged to a record high of 23 seats, leading the poll and widening its advantage over Likud. Naftali Bennett’s faction, Yachdav, has also gained ground, rising to 17 seats, while the Democrats maintain 11 seats after their primaries.

Other right-wing parties show slight increases, with Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism gaining one seat each, reaching 8 and 5 seats respectively. Shas and United Torah Judaism remain stable at 8 seats each. The opposition bloc holds a majority with 61 seats, enough to form a government without the Arab parties, who have 10 seats. The Netanyahu-led bloc stands at 49 seats.

Within Yachdav, voter analysis shows that its 17 seats come from a mix of supporters: 10 from Bennett’s previous base, 5 from Yesh Atid voters, and 2 from other allied parties. There is division among opposition voters about the future of the Bennett-Lapid alliance, with nearly half favoring continued cooperation and about a third advocating separation. Most Yachdav supporters prefer to maintain the partnership, though Lapid’s backers are more unified on this point than Bennett’s.

A scenario where Trooper and Hendel join Eizenkot’s Yisrael Beiteinu could boost Eizenkot’s party to 27 seats, making it the largest by a clear margin and reducing Yachdav to 14 seats. This would not alter the overall bloc balance, which remains unchanged.

Regarding preferred prime minister candidates, opposition leaders maintain an edge over Netanyahu. Bennett leads with 45% support versus Netanyahu’s 42%, a stable gap since early July. Eizenkot holds a 46% to 40% lead over Netanyahu, slightly narrowing the margin. In a direct contest between opposition figures, Eizenkot leads Bennett 38% to 23%. Among anti-government voters, Eizenkot’s lead has doubled in recent weeks.

The poll, with a 4.4% margin of error, sampled a representative cross-section of Israel’s adult Jewish and Arab populations. These findings highlight ongoing political realignments amid efforts to form new coalitions and joint lists in the center of the political spectrum ahead of future developments.