Weekend polls show Eisenkot matching Bennett as Likud gains strength

A News 12 poll published Thursday evening found that if elections were held today, Likud would be the largest party with 22 seats, one fewer than in the previous poll. Yesh Atid weakened by one seat and now stands at 20, the same as Gadi Eisenkot’s party, which continues its upward trend and gains one more seat than in the previous poll. The Democrats have 11 seats. Further down the list, Shas and Otzma Yehudit have 9 seats each, Yisrael Beytenu weakens by one seat to 8, and United Torah Judaism retains 7. At the bottom of the poll, the Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am maintain their strength with 5 seats each, while Religious Zionism remains above the electoral threshold with 4 seats. Below the threshold are the Reservists with 1.6%, Balad with 1.1%, and Blue and White with 0.7%. In the bloc breakdown, the opposition parties, including the Arab parties, receive 69 seats, while the coalition gets 51.

The poll also examined a scenario in which the Arab parties Hadash, Ta’al and Balad unite into a joint list, while all other parties remain unchanged. Under that scenario, the joint list would receive 6 seats, and Ra’am would keep its 5 seats. Respondents were also asked about a scenario in which Dadi Shmihi joins Gantz, with all other parties unchanged. According to that scenario, Shmihi’s addition to Blue and White strengthens the party, but Blue and White still remains below the electoral threshold at 2.2%. In terms of the party map and bloc map, Shmihi’s joining Gantz does not change anything.

On the question of suitability for prime minister, in a comparison between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, both receive 36% support. In a comparison between Netanyahu and Bennett, Netanyahu gets 37% support compared with Bennett’s 33%. In a comparison between Netanyahu and Liberman, Netanyahu gets 38% support versus 25% for Liberman. In a comparison between Eisenkot and Bennett among opposition voters, Eisenkot gets 46% support compared with Bennett’s 36%. Eleven percent said they preferred "someone else," and 7% said they did not know.

Against the backdrop of this week’s latest round with Iran, respondents were asked whether Israel’s deterrence against Iran had strengthened or weakened as a result. According to the respondents, 50% thought deterrence had weakened, compared with 28% who said it had strengthened, and 22% who answered "don’t know." They were also asked whether Israel’s freedom of action in Lebanon had strengthened or weakened after the latest round with Iran. Forty-nine percent said it had weakened, compared with 30% who said it had strengthened, and 21% who answered "don’t know."

The poll also asked about the prime minister’s decision to strike in Lebanon despite President Trump’s demand not to do so. Twenty-nine percent of the full sample said Netanyahu acted correctly, compared with 36% who said Netanyahu should have struck with greater force, and 19% who said he should have listened to President Trump. Among coalition voters, 53% said Netanyahu acted correctly, compared with 36% who said he should have struck more forcefully and 4% who said he should have listened to Trump. Among opposition voters, 23% said Netanyahu acted correctly, compared with 46% who said the strike should have been more powerful, and 18% who said he should have listened to Trump.

Against the backdrop of the fighting, the public was asked whether it trusts or does not trust U.S. President Trump to ensure Israel’s interests in an agreement with Iran. According to the poll, only 21% said they trust Trump to look אחרי ישראל’s interests, compared with 62% who said they do not trust him and 17% who said they do not know. Among coalition voters, 35% said they trust Trump on the Israeli interest, compared with 45% who said they do not trust him and 20% who said they do not know.

Meanwhile, a News 14 poll broadcast Thursday evening showed the continued strengthening of Likud and Gadi Eisenkot, alongside a further weakening of Naftali Bennett. According to the new figures, Likud rises to 33 seats, one more than in last week’s poll, when it had 32. The party "Yeshar" maintains its strength with 16 seats, a result that solidifies its position as the leading alternative in the opposition. The party "Yachad" continues to lose ground and falls to 13 seats.

Further in the seat map, Shas has 10 seats, while Otzma Yehudit falls to 8 seats after registering a jump to 9 in the previous poll. The Democrats (9), Yisrael Beytenu (8) and United Torah Judaism (7) remain stable compared with last week’s figures. The Joint List has 6 seats, while Ra’am and Religious Zionism have 5 each. The right-wing bloc retains a majority of 63 seats, while the left bloc weakens by one seat to 46, down from 47 in the previous poll. The Arab parties rise to a combined 11 seats, while Blue and White continues to collapse below the electoral threshold with only 0.8% support, after standing at 1.3% last week.

In the prime ministerial suitability question, Netanyahu gets 49%, Eisenkot rises to 29%, a further increase after already reaching 26% last week. Bennett suffers a significant setback and drops to only 14% suitability, a sharp decline from 18% in the previous poll. Avigdor Liberman and Benny Gantz remain stable at the bottom of the list with 7% and 1%, respectively, in line with last week’s figures.