For the First Time, Eisenkot Matches Bennett in Mandates

A new Channel 12 News poll shows Likud weakening to 22 seats. Bennett and Lapid's Yesh Atid alliance falls to 20, and for the first time is tied with Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar, which continues to rise.

The poll also found that Yair Golan's Democrats would win 11 seats. In the next tier, Shas led by Aryeh Deri and Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben Gvir would each win 9 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman would fall by one seat to 8, and United Torah Judaism led by Yitzhak Goldknopf would hold steady at 7.

At the bottom of the list, the Arab parties Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am would each keep 5 seats, while Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism would remain above the electoral threshold with 4 seats. Below the threshold are the Reservists led by Yoaz Hendel (1.6%), Balad led by Sami Abu Shehadeh (1.1%), and Blue and White led by Benny Gantz (0.7%).

According to the bloc map, the two blocs remain unchanged overall compared with the previous poll. The opposition parties, including the Arab parties, receive 69 seats, while the coalition gets 51.

The poll also examined scenarios of a joint Arab list, without Ra'am, and of Dadi Shmihi joining Blue and White. In a scenario where Hadash, Ta'al and Balad merge into a joint list and all other parties remain unchanged, the joint list would win 6 seats and Ra'am would keep 5. In that case, the opposition would still total 69 seats and the coalition 51, but within the opposition bloc the Arab parties would gain one seat at the expense of the Zionist parties.

In the scenario where Dadi Shmihi joins Blue and White, the party would be strengthened but would still remain below the electoral threshold with 2.2%. That scenario would not change the party map or the bloc map.

After Eisenkot overtook Netanyahu for the first time last week in the question of who is better suited to serve as prime minister, the two now receive identical support of 36%. In the matchup between Netanyahu and Bennett, Netanyahu gets 37% to Bennett's 33%. Against Lieberman, Netanyahu gets 38% to 25%. Among opposition voters, Eisenkot gets 46% compared with Bennett's 36%; 11% said they prefer someone else and 7% said they do not know.

Following this week's latest round with Iran, the poll asked whether Israel's deterrence against Iran had strengthened or weakened. Fifty percent said it had weakened, 28% said it had strengthened, and 22% said they did not know. On Israel's freedom of action in Lebanon after the latest round with Iran, 49% said it had weakened, 30% said it had strengthened, and 21% said they did not know.

The poll also asked about the prime minister's decision to strike in Lebanon despite President Trump's demand not to do so. Twenty-nine percent of the sample said Netanyahu acted correctly, 36% said he should have struck more forcefully, and 19% said he should have listened to Trump. Among coalition voters, 53% said Netanyahu acted correctly, 36% said he should have struck more forcefully, and 4% said he should have listened to Trump. Among opposition voters, 23% said Netanyahu acted correctly, 46% said the strike should have been more forceful, and 18% said he should have listened to Trump.

On whether the public trusts President Trump to protect Israel's interests in an agreement with Iran, 21% said they trust him, 62% said they do not trust him, and 17% said they do not know. Among coalition voters, 35% said they trust Trump regarding Israel's interests, 45% said they do not trust him, and 20% said they do not know.