Israeli Opposition Nears Knesset Majority but Faces Political Deadlock

A new poll aggregation by Globes reveals shifts in Israel's political landscape ahead of upcoming elections. The Likud party and the Yisrael Beytenu party, led by Benny Gantz and Avigdor Lieberman respectively, maintain their seat counts at 24 and 22 mandates. The Yamina party, led by Naftali Bennett, loses one seat, dropping to 14 mandates. Other parties such as the Democratic camp hold steady at 10 seats, while United Torah Judaism and Shas each retain 8 seats. Otzma Yehudit falls to 7 seats, Religious Zionism holds 5, and the Joint List and Ra'am each have 5 seats, with Ra'am gaining one.

The new party formed by Yoaz Hendel and Hili Tropper, as well as Blue and White led by Benny Gantz, fail to cross the electoral threshold in most polls. The coalition's strength decreases by one seat to 53 mandates, while the opposition rises to 67 mandates, including 10 seats held by Arab parties (Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am). Two polls (Channel 13 and Maariv) show the opposition excluding Arab parties with at least 61 seats, but this depends on the Hendel-Tropper party passing the threshold with four seats. Since this party aims to form a broad Zionist government bridging political blocs, this opposition majority may not translate into a government solely from opposition parties.

Other polls (Channels 11 and 12) show the opposition without Arab parties gaining one seat, reaching 58 or 59 mandates, while Arab parties hold 10 seats. The only poll where the opposition does not strengthen is Channel 14, which shows Likud dropping from 33 to 32 seats, with the lost seat shifting to Religious Zionism, which rises from 5 to 6 mandates.

Regarding party mergers, polls from Channels 12 and 13 suggest that if Benny Gantz and Dedi Simchi unite, and if Yuli Edelstein, Gilad Erdan, and Ayelet Shaked form a joint party, none of these parties, including Hendel-Tropper, would pass the threshold. However, Channel 11's poll indicates the Edelstein-Erdan-Shaked party would pass with 5 seats. In that scenario, the coalition would drop to 49 seats, and the opposition without Arab parties would have 56 seats, totaling 61 seats with the new party, enough to form a government. Yet, it remains unclear if this new party would support such a government, leaving the opposition stuck in a political deadlock.

This analysis highlights the complex dynamics and uncertainties facing Israel's opposition as it approaches a parliamentary majority but struggles to translate it into a viable governing coalition.