New Israel Hayom Poll Shows Joint List Crossing Threshold, Opposition Gains Slight Edge Over Netanyahu Bloc

A recent Israel Hayom poll reveals a shifting political landscape in Israel, highlighting a small but notable shakeup in the center-right. For the first time, the Joint List formed by Yoaz Hendel and Hili Tropper surpasses the electoral threshold, securing four Knesset seats. The Likud party remains stable and leads with 24 seats, unchanged from the previous poll.

The entry of Hendel and Tropper's list primarily impacts the opposition camp, which now holds 58 seats, up from previous totals. Within this bloc, the Yisrael party rises to 23 seats, while the BeYachad party declines to 14 seats, and the Democrats fall to eight seats. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu remains steady at nine seats.

Among religious and ultra-Orthodox parties, Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, holds eight seats, down from nine. Shas and United Torah Judaism each maintain eight seats. The Religious Zionist Party, headed by Bezalel Smotrich, remains at the electoral threshold with four seats. In the Arab sector, the Hadash-Ta'al list drops to five seats, while Ra'am slightly increases to five seats.

The poll presents a complex scenario for government formation. Netanyahu's supporting bloc, including Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism, totals only 52 seats, insufficient for a majority. The opposition bloc, including Yisrael, BeYachad, Yisrael Beiteinu, Democrats, and the Hendel-Tropper list, holds 58 seats. Arab parties collectively control the remaining 10 seats.

This distribution suggests no easy path to a stable government for either side, underscoring ongoing political fragmentation in Israel.