Lionel Messi Emerges as Favorite to Win Ninth Ballon d'Or After World Cup Final Spot

Following Argentina's advancement to the 2026 World Cup final, Lionel Messi has become the leading contender to win the Ballon d'Or for the ninth time in his career. The recent elimination of England in the semifinals shifted the odds significantly, with betting agency OddsChecker now giving Messi a 45% chance to claim the prestigious award. Previously, England's Harry Kane was the clear favorite, but his chances dropped to 15% after England's exit.

Moroccan player Ayman Yamal is currently ranked second with a 31% chance of winning the award. Other notable contenders include Ousmane Dembélé and Kylian Mbappé, each holding a modest 2% chance. If Messi secures the 2026 Ballon d'Or, he will become the first player in history to win the award while actively playing in Major League Soccer (MLS). Although Messi won the 2023 Ballon d'Or after joining Inter Miami, that victory was largely based on his final European season with Paris Saint-Germain and Argentina's 2022 World Cup triumph.

The outcome of the World Cup final between Argentina and Spain is expected to be decisive in determining the Ballon d'Or winner. A Spanish victory would likely result in Ayman Yamal winning the award for the first time, whereas an Argentine win would solidify Messi's historic ninth Ballon d'Or title.