Harry Kane Tops Ballon d'Or Race After Mbappe's World Cup Exit

France's elimination from the 2026 World Cup semifinal has severely damaged Kylian Mbappe's chances of winning the Ballon d'Or, removing him from the top contenders list. Until the final whistle against Spain, Mbappe was the clear favorite on the Polymarket betting platform, holding about a 42% chance to win the prestigious award. However, following France's exit, his odds plummeted, reopening the competition for the individual honor.

England captain Harry Kane has emerged as the primary beneficiary of Mbappe's downfall, surging to the top of the Polymarket leaderboard with odds now ranging between 28% and 32%. Kane, who plays for Bayern Munich, is having a career-best tournament and is leading England deep into the knockout stages. A World Cup victory could make him the first English player to win the Ballon d'Or since Michael Owen in 2001, a scenario increasingly plausible to online bettors.

Surprisingly, Amin Yamal holds second place on the betting platform with approximately 17% odds despite a less impressive World Cup performance. Legendary player Lionel Messi ranks third, continuing to demonstrate exceptional skill at age 39 and remaining a serious contender for the award.

The Polymarket platform highlights how volatile the Ballon d'Or race is, heavily influenced by moments in major tournaments like the World Cup. The upcoming semifinal and final matches are expected to decisively shape the outcome of the award race.