Harry Kane Emerges as New Favorite for 2026 Ballon d'Or After France's World Cup Exit

The race for the 2026 Ballon d'Or has shifted dramatically following France's elimination from the World Cup by Spain. According to the prediction market Kalshi, Harry Kane has surged to become the clear favorite to win the prestigious individual football award for the first time in his career, holding a 54% chance. Lionel Messi ranks second with 22%, while Spain's Anssumane Fati is third at 12%, with his chances potentially influenced by Spain's remaining final match. Joining the top five are Jude Bellingham at 10% and Kylian Mbappé at 3%. Prior to France's exit, Mbappé was the leading contender, but his team's elimination and a relatively disappointing season at Real Madrid have severely diminished his prospects. Current Ballon d'Or holder Ousmane Dembélé, despite an exceptional season with Paris Saint-Germain including a major double, is also unlikely to retain the title due to France's World Cup departure, placing him far behind in the forecasts. The decisive stages of the World Cup will continue to impact the final outcome of the award race.