Messi Emerges as Favorite to Win Ninth Ballon d'Or After World Cup Final Spot

Following Argentina's advancement to the 2026 World Cup final, Lionel Messi has become the leading favorite to win his ninth Ballon d'Or. The elimination of England in the semifinals shifted the odds significantly, with Harry Kane's chances dropping from clear favorite to just 15 percent, according to betting agency OddsChecker. Messi now holds a 45 percent chance of winning the prestigious award, surpassing Kane and other contenders.

Moroccan player Ayman Yamal ranks second with a 31 percent chance, while Ousmane Dembélé and Kylian Mbappé are further behind, each with only a 2 percent chance. If Messi wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or, he will be the first player to claim the award while actively playing in Major League Soccer (MLS). Although Messi won the 2023 Ballon d'Or as an Inter Miami player, that award primarily reflected his final European season with Paris Saint-Germain and his 2022 World Cup victory with Argentina.

The outcome of the World Cup final between Argentina and Spain is expected to be decisive for the Ballon d'Or race. A Spanish victory would likely secure Yamal his first Ballon d'Or, while an Argentine win would solidify Messi's historic ninth award. This milestone would mark an unprecedented achievement in football history.