Russia Launches Intense Missile Barrage on Kyiv Amid Domestic Fuel Crisis and Rising Pressure on Putin

In the early hours between Wednesday and Thursday, Russia launched one of its heaviest attacks on Kyiv since the start of the year, firing 74 missiles and nearly 500 drones over 11 hours. The assault killed at least 21 people and injured over 90, damaging or collapsing residential buildings across the Ukrainian capital, which declared a day of mourning for Friday. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted most of the projectiles, but 25 ballistic missiles and 12 drones struck 33 locations. Explosions echoed throughout Kyiv as residents sought shelter in metro stations and bomb shelters, while rescue teams searched for survivors amid the rubble.

Moscow described the strikes as "retaliatory" for Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia and vowed to continue pressuring Kyiv. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied targeting civilians, stating the attacks focused solely on military objectives. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha called the night "a night of terror" and urged Western nations to expedite delivery of air defense systems, especially Patriot batteries, to counter ballistic missile threats.

Behind the escalation lies a growing fuel crisis in Russia, exacerbated by intensified Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure. Fuel shortages have led to sales restrictions, long queues, and rising prices, with some regions experiencing gasoline costs up to $2.42 per liter, despite Russia being a major energy exporter. The crisis is impacting agriculture and public services, prompting President Vladimir Putin to acknowledge supply problems and promise market stabilization measures. Russia has begun importing gasoline from India and secured fuel deliveries from Kazakhstan.

Ukrainian forces also struck a major refinery near Nizhny Novgorod, killing one and injuring four, and damaged a railway bridge in occupied Luhansk used for Russian military logistics. The conflict, now in its fifth year, has evolved into a war of attrition targeting both military and civilian infrastructure on both sides.

According to a recent CSIS study, military casualties on both sides have surpassed two million, with Russian losses estimated at 1.4 million and Ukrainian losses between 525,000 and 625,000. The report highlights unprecedented Russian casualties for a major power in the modern era and notes Russia is losing more soldiers monthly than it can recruit. Despite numerical superiority, Russia’s military advances have been minimal, with some frontline gains measured in mere meters per day.

Amid this mounting pressure, political speculation is growing about Putin’s future. On the Polymarket betting platform, a market on whether Putin will remain president through 2026 has attracted $13.7 million in bets, with a roughly 12% chance assigned to his departure. One anonymous bettor has wagered over $400,000 on Putin leaving office by year-end, with potential winnings exceeding $2.5 million if the scenario occurs.