Lebanon Deal Leaves Israel Facing Three Costly Options, Ex-Aman Chief Says

A commentary by former IDF Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin and strategist Udi Avital argues that a U.S.-led understanding on Lebanon, reached in Switzerland between the United States and Iran, puts Israel in a bind. The reported arrangement includes a mechanism to prevent clashes in Lebanon, with Qatar and Pakistan participating but not Israel, and Yadlin and Avital say it effectively expands Iran’s foothold in Lebanon while limiting Israel’s freedom to strike Hezbollah.

They say the first clause of the broader U.S.-Iran memorandum calls for an end to military activity in Lebanon and for Lebanon’s territorial integrity to be guaranteed, without similar U.S. demands on Iran’s respect for Gulf sovereignty. In their view, recent U.S. moves, including efforts by President Donald Trump to restrain Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in the Dahieh district of Beirut and elsewhere in Lebanon, create a “problematic equation” that could spill over into Gaza and the West Bank. Israel, they write, cannot accept outside dictates over its right to defend itself and now faces three bad choices.

The first is to keep using force against Hezbollah, which they say would trigger a clash with Trump’s administration, risk blame for derailing U.S.-Iran talks, and possibly cost Washington’s backing if hostilities with Iran resume. They also reject a narrow buffer zone or a push to the Litani River, saying Israel already spent 18 years in a security zone and would again face guerrilla warfare while the army is stretched after 2.5 years of war, deployments in Gaza and Syria, and heavy operations in the West Bank.

The second option is to continue the current approach of mixing force with pauses and U.S. pressure, but they warn this could produce the “worst of all worlds,” keeping friction with Washington, a drawn-out guerrilla war, and attention diverted from the nuclear file. Their preferred third option is a combined diplomatic and military track: accelerate talks with the Lebanese government in Washington, adopt “pilot areas” for phased Israeli withdrawal from any zone that is effectively disarmed and placed under the Lebanese Army, and tie any aid to Lebanon’s army to cutting its ties with Hezbollah and blocking Hezbollah infiltration. They say this should be part of a broader deal conditioned on Hezbollah disarmament, giving Israel legitimacy to act in Lebanon if Hezbollah returns, and helping shift the Lebanese public further against the group’s weapons.