Analyst Warns Israeli Rhetoric Risks Escalating Conflict With Iran

An Israeli research fellow is warning that Israeli rhetoric about a potential Iranian attack could inadvertently provoke Tehran into preemptive action, escalating the conflict. Dani Sirinovich, a senior Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), argues that seven months into the ongoing war, Iran remains a strategic challenge for Israel, despite damage to its capabilities and ongoing pressure. Sirinovich suggests that discussions in Israel about Iran's potential attacks and its recovering capabilities indicate a failure to achieve a strategic solution.

Sirinovich emphasizes that while Iran possesses the capability to threaten and attack Israel, this does not equate to an immediate intention to do so. He believes Iran has significant reasons to avoid direct confrontation, including its efforts to leverage control over the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing diplomatic attempts to reach a broader agreement with the United States. An attack on Israel at this juncture could harm Iran's own interests, reignite a large-scale conflict, and divert resources from its strategic objectives concerning the Strait of Hormuz.

However, Sirinovich cautions that Iran's military thinking has shifted towards a more offensive doctrine, including the possibility of preemptive strikes if Tehran perceives an imminent attack from Israel or the U.S. He states, "We are playing with fire of miscalculation." The researcher explains that Israeli statements about Iran planning an attack, coupled with officials hastily linking Iran to unclear events, could create the very dynamic to be feared. This scenario could lead Iran to strike first, believing an Israeli attack is imminent, which Israel would then interpret as confirmation of its initial threat assessment, thus accelerating the path to war.

Sirinovich acknowledges that some in Israel might believe an Iranian attack would legitimize a broader campaign against Tehran. Nevertheless, he stresses that due to Iran's more offensive and sensitive doctrine, current statements and threats carry significant weight. He concludes, "Irresponsible statements in the current reality are no longer just rhetoric. They can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is playing with fire, literally."

These warnings come amid reports from Iran of heightened military readiness. An Iranian journalist cited a source indicating Iran is preparing for a potential large-scale war with increased military training and combat readiness nationwide. Earlier, Iran's Mehr news agency reported that the country's armed forces had raised their readiness level to maximum, with plans for air, land, and sea responses against U.S. and Israeli forces. An Iranian army representative also stated full readiness for renewed confrontation with the U.S., warning of greater damage to Washington in case of a new attack.