Oman Maintains Ties With Israel But Rules Out Full Normalization

Oman's relationship with Israel is characterized by a complex policy of maintaining communication channels while refraining from full diplomatic normalization, according to academic research. This approach, described as a "mediating state" strategy, allows a smaller nation to build strategic value by engaging with rival blocs without fully aligning with any. Oman's official stance consistently supports a two-state solution, the establishment of a Palestinian state within 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, and opposes settlements and annexation, emphasizing international law and UN resolutions.

The country's policy is not solely a reaction to the recent Gaza conflict but a long-standing political position where the establishment of a Palestinian state is a prerequisite for any official recognition of Israel. Historically, Oman and Israel have had open, secret, and semi-official contacts, particularly after the Oslo Accords in the 1990s, which included visits by Israeli Prime Ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, an Israeli trade office in Muscat, and joint involvement in the MEDRC desalination research center. These ties did not evolve into full diplomatic relations, and the Israeli trade office closed in 2000 with the outbreak of the Second Intifada, though informal communication channels persisted.

Despite hosting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018, a visit that followed Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas's extended stay, full diplomatic relations were not established. Oman's decision not to join the Abraham Accords in 2020 is attributed to the limited benefits and higher costs, such as damage to its mediator image, relations with Iran, and internal consensus. Oman's approach was to remain outside the accords while not overtly opposing them, offering principled blessings contingent on progress in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In January 2023, Oman's Shura Council voted to expand a law prohibiting ties with Israel, including economic, cultural, and sporting interactions, and personal or online exchanges. This vote reflected public sensitivity to the Palestinian issue and signaled to Israel and Western nations that full normalization was not imminent. However, the Sultan and government hold the ultimate authority on foreign policy decisions, suggesting the vote was a calculated message to balance external relations with domestic public pressure.

The war in Gaza has reinforced the pro-Palestinian aspect of Oman's policy, deepening its existing stance. Research indicates that Palestinians serve as a moral, historical, and cultural anchor for Oman. The ongoing conflict and the Israeli government's perceived actions regarding annexation or harm to Palestinians diminish Oman's incentive for normalization. From Israel's perspective, Oman is not a target for rapid normalization but a potential channel for regional dialogue, particularly with Iran and certain Palestinian and regional actors. However, this Omani channel is contingent on credible progress in the Palestinian issue; any attempt to bypass this condition could be seen as an effort to legitimize Israeli policies rather than genuinely resolve the conflict.