Professor Believes "Netanyahu Knew" Campaign Won't Sway Voters

Professor Moshe Cohen Eliya stated on Wednesday that the ongoing campaign alleging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was aware of the October 7th attack beforehand and failed to act is an influence operation designed to harm Netanyahu, but it is not succeeding.

Cohen Eliya cited research from the Oxford Internet Institute, which documented how governments, parties, and private entities use coordinated networks, bots, fake accounts, and paid advertising to shape discourse and public opinion, noting such manipulation was found in 81 countries in a 2020 report.

He also referenced a February meta-analysis published in Nature Communications involving over 31,000 subjects, which found that the mere repetition of a claim increases the likelihood of people accepting it as true, a phenomenon termed the "illusory truth effect." Cohen Eliya explained that hearing a claim repeatedly across various media outlets creates a perception of widespread agreement.

Further research indicates that repeating the same idea with different phrasing can enhance perceived credibility, and spaced repetition may be more effective than dense repetition. This suggests that an influence campaign does not require identical messaging across all media, as long as the narrative is consistently reinforced through seemingly independent sources.

However, Cohen Eliya concluded that influence operations are not always effective. He pointed to a study of the Russian operation on Twitter during the 2016 US elections, which found high exposure concentrated among a small user group but no significant link to changes in attitudes, polarization, or voting behavior. He believes the "Netanyahu knew" campaign will not be effective, as it will likely only reinforce existing beliefs among those already opposed to Netanyahu, while those on the right will perceive it as a biased attempt to influence the upcoming elections at a suspicious time. In a closely divided and polarized electorate, loyalty to one's camp is decisive, and this campaign will not sway undecided voters.