Israel Grapples With Intelligence Before Oct. 7 Attack

Recent investigative reports, notably from The Wall Street Journal and The Atlantic, suggest Egypt provided Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with multiple warnings about an impending attack in the months and days leading up to October 7. Netanyahu has vehemently denied these reports, threatening defamation lawsuits and accusing the head of the Shin Bet security agency of withholding real-time information. The central question remains: what did Israel's political leadership, particularly Netanyahu, know before the surprise attack?

To uncover the truth amidst conflicting narratives from the Prime Minister, the Shin Bet chief, and security officials, several avenues are being explored. Official government and military protocols offer a factual basis, providing records of security discussions, phone calls, and cabinet meetings. However, these documents can be subject to interpretation, with warnings potentially viewed as concrete threats or theoretical scenarios.

International sources, including Egypt, the UAE, and the United States, were also involved in monitoring the situation and relaying messages to Israel. For instance, U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul stated shortly after the attack that Egypt had warned Israel of a major event three days prior. While foreign testimonies offer an independent perspective, they are influenced by geopolitical interests and are not directly accessible to the Israeli public.

A state commission of inquiry, headed by a retired Supreme Court justice, possesses broad legal authority to summon witnesses and demand classified documents. This body could potentially cross-reference information from the IDF, Shin Bet, and the Prime Minister's office to form a comprehensive factual picture. However, such commissions can take years to conclude, and much of the evidence may remain classified for decades, with the public only seeing a censored report.

Netanyahu has opposed the formation of a state commission, suggesting a national inquiry committee composed of coalition and opposition representatives instead. He has also reportedly asked the President of the UAE to publicly deny reports that he too had warned Netanyahu about Hamas's intentions. The Prime Minister has labeled the reports of warnings as "fake news" and a "blood libel" orchestrated by Arab states and the left-wing media to destabilize his right-wing government. He has also pointed fingers at Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, claiming Bar knew of the real danger on the night of the attack.