Trump Rejects Iran's Strait of Hormuz Deal, Eyes Post-Election Strikes

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly rejected a significant deal proposed by Iran concerning the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian proposal included reopening shipping, lowering gasoline prices, and announcing a diplomatic victory shortly before the U.S. Congressional elections. In return, Iran sought the lifting of naval blockades and a relaxation of oil sanctions. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump informed his advisors of plans for a new series of strikes against Iran immediately following the November elections.

The article suggests a synchronization between the U.S. and Israeli political calendars. Trump's actions are reportedly constrained until November 3rd due to low approval ratings, concerns about inflation, and the upcoming elections. After November 3rd, the electoral pressure diminishes. The 22nd Amendment prevents Trump from seeking a third term, and the War Powers Resolution allows him to conduct a 60-day military operation without direct Congressional approval.

Meanwhile, Israel is scheduled to hold its Knesset elections on October 27th. Polls indicate a political stalemate, with neither the ruling coalition nor the opposition expected to secure the necessary 61 seats for a majority. The article posits that if the U.S. initiates strikes against Iran during Israel's intense coalition negotiations, it could dramatically alter the political landscape.

Such a regional conflict could force figures like Gadi Eisenkot to shift focus from domestic issues like judicial reform or coalition funding to supporting an emergency war cabinet led by Prime Minister Netanyahu. This scenario could potentially strengthen Netanyahu's political position. The author suggests that a November military action presents an opportune solution for leaders in both the U.S. and Israel.