Hamas Rebuilding Military Strength Despite War Losses

Hamas's military capabilities have been significantly diminished since the start of the war, but its armed wing retains a substantial potential, estimated at 25,000 to 30,000 fighters. This includes veterans of the conflict and new recruits, according to Mako. A recent funeral for a militant in Gaza on September 26, attended by dozens of armed individuals reportedly linked to Hamas, demonstrated the group's continued ability to project presence and strength.

The rebuilding effort extends beyond personnel. Hamas is expanding and reinforcing its tunnel network, particularly in areas beyond the "yellow line" where Israeli troops are not permanently stationed. The organization is also maintaining its rocket production capacity, utilizing workshops in areas not subjected to ground operations by the IDF and within densely populated neighborhoods. While rockets are not currently being fired due to fear of Israeli retaliation, the production infrastructure remains intact.

Hamas is also working to replenish its small arms stocks. Recently, the group has been distributing assault rifles to local supporters who are not official members, a strategy aimed at retaining weaponry within the loyal population even if future disarmament is mandated. Smuggling from Egypt continues, with weapons reportedly being transported via drones, though the exact volume is unknown. These ongoing efforts indicate a persistent attempt to restore the group's military potential.

In summary, while Hamas has been severely weakened, it is not powerless. The group maintains a significant number of fighters, is developing its underground infrastructure, continues rocket production, and is receiving weapons through smuggling channels. The IDF and Shin Bet are continuing their operations, but the ultimate outcome in Gaza hinges on a political solution to solidify the results of the fighting.