Hamas Retains Significant Military Strength Nearly Three Years After October 7

Nearly three years after the October 7th attacks, Hamas, while severely degraded, has not been eliminated and continues to maintain significant infrastructure and personnel. Despite ongoing efforts to eliminate its operatives, the organization demonstrates a persistent presence, evidenced by recent funeral gatherings where dozens of armed individuals, likely Hamas members, were openly present.

The military wing of Hamas is estimated to still comprise between 25,000 and 30,000 fighters, including new recruits. The group actively maintains and strengthens its tunnel network, particularly in areas beyond the Gaza border, and operates facilities for rocket production in areas with civilian populations and where the IDF has not operated. While rockets are not currently being fired due to fear of Israeli retaliation, the production capability remains intact.

Hamas is also working to preserve its weapons stockpiles, recently distributing arms to supporters who are not necessarily official members. This is seen as an effort to ensure weapons remain available to its loyalists even if future scenarios require the surrender of military assets. Additionally, the organization continues to smuggle weapons from Egypt using drones, indicating ongoing attempts to rebuild its capabilities despite years of conflict.

The overall picture is of an organization that has suffered heavy losses but still possesses tens of thousands of fighters, underground infrastructure, local manufacturing capabilities, and avenues for rearmament. Alongside the ongoing military and intelligence operations by the IDF and Shin Bet, a diplomatic initiative is considered essential to complement military pressure and shape the future reality in the Gaza Strip.