Ethiopian Rebels Form New Alliance Amidst Escalating Conflict

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the former ruling party in Ethiopia, has seized control of Mekelle International Airport in the Tigray region, signaling a potential resurgence of the civil war. Clashes and airstrikes have been reported in northern Ethiopia since the takeover last Thursday. The Israeli Foreign Ministry has advised its citizens against travel to the area and urged those present to avoid inter-city movement and contact the embassy, noting that Ethiopian Jews primarily reside near potential conflict zones.

The TPLF is preparing for a renewed conflict, following a devastating war that concluded in 2022, claiming nearly 600,000 lives and displacing over 2.5 million people. Tensions between the TPLF and the federal government have been escalating since January, with the government seeking tighter control over Tigray and the TPLF aiming to maintain its influence. The TPLF accused the federal government of imposing a blockade on Tigray after its full takeover in May, leading the Ethiopian Electoral Board to de-register the TPLF as a political party and bar it from participating in the June elections.

Prior to seizing the airport, the TPLF announced its intention to coordinate efforts with six other armed ethnic militias to counter what it terms a "horizontal war" in favor of a "vertical war." Horizontal war refers to conflict between ethnic groups, while vertical war signifies a struggle against the government. The allied militias include the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF), the Benishangul People's Liberation Movement (BPLM), and the Gumuz People's Democratic Movement (GPDM).

The stated objective of this new alliance is to overthrow the current Ethiopian government. This "horizontal" coalition marks a departure from the 2020-2022 Tigray war, where ethnic militias were divided in their allegiances, and Eritrea supported the federal government. This time, Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of backing the TPLF.

Adding to the regional complexity, Ethiopia has accused Egypt and Sudan of supporting the rebels. Ethiopian Army Chief of Staff, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, stated that the TPLF and its allies rely on external support from Sudan, Egypt, and other powers. Long-standing diplomatic disputes between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile have fueled tensions, with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi suggesting military action as a possibility. Sudan has reciprocated Egypt's support, receiving Egyptian military aid in its civil war against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Ethiopia has been accused of facilitating UAE re-supply of the RSF through its territory.

The intricate web of alliances and overlapping support networks has raised concerns that a renewed conflict in Ethiopia could ignite a broader regional conflagration, potentially drawing in the civil wars in Sudan and Somalia, with Egyptian and UAE support networks also involved.