Likud Prepares Secret 'October Surprise' to Recapture Lost Votes

The Likud party is reportedly developing a secret campaign strategy, dubbed an "October Surprise," aimed at regaining lost voter support in the final weeks before the upcoming elections. This plan, to be unveiled after the holidays, is based on internal polling and analysis, according to Maariv.

The party has observed initial signs of returning right-wing voters who had become disillusioned with the government but had not yet committed to opposition parties. Likud believes that as the election campaign intensifies around the left-right divide, these voters may reconsider their choices.

Internal polling from March showed Likud with 27 seats and Gadi Eisenkot's party with 13. By September, Likud had dropped to 18 seats while Eisenkot's party rose to 22. Despite Likud's individual losses, the overall right-wing bloc has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 49 and 51 seats, while the opposition bloc has seen a slight decline. However, neither bloc is currently close to the 61 seats needed for a majority.

Analysts point to the rise of right-wing parties outside Likud, such as Ofir Winter's "Amcha Yisrael" and the "Religious Zionism" and "Zeut" alliance, as a factor in Likud's decline. Additionally, the undecided voter bloc, representing about ten seats, is seen as crucial.

A key component of the Likud strategy involves targeting low-turnout polling stations where the party historically performed well. The campaign estimates that mobilizing these "sleeping" Likud supporters could yield an additional two to three seats. The party is also grappling with the political positioning of Ofir Winter, whose party is currently polling close to the electoral threshold. Some within Likud believe Winter's withdrawal from the race could secure a right-wing majority, while others fear that continued pressure on him might inadvertently boost his support or cause a loss of votes if he fails to pass the threshold.