Arab Voter Turnout May Reach 60% But Not Significantly Higher, Pollster Says

A leading researcher, Ihab Qadah, stated that current polls do not indicate a significant surge in voter motivation within the Arab community, despite ongoing political and security developments. Qadah, affiliated with a research institute, revealed that their latest survey projects an Arab voter turnout of up to 60% for the upcoming elections. This figure is an increase from the 53.2% actual turnout in Arab and Druze towns during the 2022 Knesset elections.

However, Qadah cautioned that a 60% turnout might not represent a substantial shift in electoral sentiment, especially if Jewish voter participation approaches 80%. He warned that the gap in participation rates between the Arab and Jewish communities could widen if Arab turnout remains around 60% while Jewish turnout rises. Current polling data does not support predictions of a significant jump to 15 or 16 seats for Arab parties, with his team's latest figures suggesting around 13 seats for the two main Arab lists.

Qadah identified youth and the elderly as demographics requiring greater mobilization, noting that some elderly voters perceive elections as less important, while some young people opt for other activities on election day. He estimated that the proportion of those who initially boycott elections within the Arab community is at most 15%.

He suggested that recent disqualifications of Arab lists and candidates could potentially motivate new segments of voters, though his team has not yet conducted a specific poll to measure the full impact of these decisions on voting intentions. Qadah also pointed out that Jewish voters participating for the first time are showing a tendency to vote for right-wing parties, which he sees as a demographic indicator of long-term trends in the Jewish community.

Qadah emphasized that any assessment of the Arab political landscape remains contingent on voter behavior on election day, and the discrepancy between poll results and actual turnout can be significant. He noted historical fluctuations in Arab voter turnout, which stood at 53.2% in 2022, compared to 44.6% in 2021 and 64.8% in 2020.