Poll Shows "Change Bloc" Voters May Shift if Arab Parties Crucial for Government

A new "Election Barometer" poll conducted by the Maagar Mohot institute for Channel 7 reveals that approximately five Knesset seats worth of voters within the "Change Bloc" might reconsider their vote if forming a government becomes dependent on Arab parties. These voters are considering abstaining or potentially voting for Ofer Winter's party.

The survey highlights significant divisions among "Change Bloc" supporters regarding potential partnerships with Arab parties. Voters for Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and the "Reservists-Economic" party (headed by Harel Locker and Yoaz Hendel) show strong opposition, with nearly 97% against the Joint List and around 80% against Ra'am. A substantial portion of these voters would prefer new elections over such a coalition, indicating a firm "red line" for many.

If it becomes clear close to the election that a "Change Bloc" government cannot be formed without Arab parties, about 16% of Lieberman's supporters and 24% of Hendel-Locker supporters might consider changing their vote, not voting at all, or are undecided. This represents a potential dilemma for nearly a fifth of these parties' voters.

Conversely, supporters of Yair Golan's Democrats show a different stance. A large majority (78%) support a coalition with Ra'am, with only 18% opposing it. Opinions are more divided regarding the Joint List, but few would prefer new elections over such a partnership. Notably, none of the Democrats' supporters indicated they would reconsider their vote under the scenario of needing Arab parties for government formation.

Supporters of Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope and Naftali Bennett's Yamina party fall in the middle. Around 90% oppose the Joint List, and about 66% oppose Ra'am. Over half would prefer new elections to a coalition with the Joint List. If forming a government without Arab parties proves impossible, about 10% of these voters might consider switching parties or abstaining.

The poll also explored alternative voting options for those considering a change. Among voters who might reconsider their vote due to the necessity of Arab party support, the most common alternatives are abstaining or voting for Ofer Winter's party. Approximately 7% of "Change Bloc" voters who prefer new elections over a government with Arab parties are considering Winter's party as a second choice.