Far-Right Dominates New Israeli Voters, Arab Youth Face Different Concerns
Israel's upcoming Knesset elections will see a significant increase in eligible voters, with 7.336 million registered, a 9.4% rise from 2022. This includes approximately 595,000 first-time voters aged 18-22, making up 8.7% of the electorate. Among these new voters, 118,000 are Palestinian Arab citizens. This surge, the largest in Israeli history, is equivalent to about six Knesset seats and is occurring as the current government completes its four-year term.
Polls are intensifying as the election date approaches, though potential security pretexts for postponement exist. The article suggests that many polls are biased, funded by specific political factions, or designed to create uncertainty and internal conflict. Some are used for exclusionary, racist purposes, warning against reliance on the Arab vote. Major parties, however, conduct in-depth surveys analyzing voter demographics by identity, age, geography, and region.
Within the 18-22 age group, the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, shows considerable strength, polling at 16% overall and potentially over 20% among Jewish first-time voters in this demographic. Many of these young supporters are soldiers, university students, or pupils from religious preparatory schools aligned with Religious Zionism. Jerusalem and its settlements have a higher concentration of these voters compared to Tel Aviv, which is seen as a stronghold of the current opposition.
In a bid to consolidate votes, Smotrich of the Religious Zionism party has formed a joint bloc with Moshe Feiglin of the far-right Zehut party. While Smotrich's young supporters are fewer and primarily from religious Zionist schools, Feiglin's appeal extends to secular, traditional, and religious youth, attracting them with a blend of Jewish fundamentalism and free-market economic discourse.
Regarding new Palestinian Arab voters aged 18-35, a poll from May 2026 indicated a rising interest in participating in the 26th Knesset elections, with 59% expressing willingness. This group is more responsive to practical, immediate concerns like the Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir government's potential impact on their future, racism, and emigration prospects, rather than broad ideological slogans. They are motivated by the desire to replace the current government and seek practical plans for daily issues. Rising violence and crime within the Arab community, alongside employment and housing costs, are key factors influencing their decision to vote.
The article notes that this generation, particularly 18-22 year olds, often eschews traditional party politics, favoring non-partisan youth movements and direct solutions from elected officials. There's a pragmatic view that the current government poses an existential threat to their future. The author suggests that while the far-right's influence among young Israelis is concerning, potentially fostering a dangerous ideology, the pragmatic approach of young Arab voters could be decisive in challenging the ruling coalition. The article concludes by emphasizing the need for international attention to the risks facing Palestinians and for monitoring the elections, especially in Arab communities.
