Ultra-Orthodox Draft Exemption Plan Faces Criticism for Low Recruitment Targets
A proposed draft exemption plan spearheaded by MK Yoav Kisch is expected to grant draft exemptions to over 95% of ultra-Orthodox men eligible for military service, according to analyses by the Israel Democracy Institute and Bank of Israel. The plan sets a target of only 4,900 ultra-Orthodox recruits annually, a fraction of the estimated 100,000 potential recruits. This proposal comes amidst warnings from IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi about the military's potential collapse due to manpower shortages, exacerbated by the lack of a comprehensive conscription law, changes to reserve duty laws, and failure to extend mandatory service.
The plan, which has faced significant opposition from ultra-Orthodox parties, was frozen in March 2026 by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich after extensive deliberations in the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Bank of Israel, in a December 2025 assessment, deemed the draft insufficient to meet security needs, citing both the low recruitment target and the ineffectiveness of proposed economic incentives, which are dependent on community behavior and have limited relevance in ultra-Orthodox society.
While existing personal enforcement measures have already led to an increase in ultra-Orthodox enlistment, with approximately 3,000 joining since July 2024 compared to previous annual averages of 1,200-1,800, the Kisch plan does not impose personal conscription obligations. Instead, it sets numerical targets for the government. The Israel Democracy Institute argues this approach lacks "equality between blood and blood," as individual ultra-Orthodox men are not obligated to serve, only the state is tasked with meeting quotas.
Previous legislative efforts, such as the one by former Interior Minister Yuval Steinitz, proposed higher recruitment targets and stricter sanctions, including the revocation of driver's licenses and scholarships. While the Kisch plan lacks these personal sanctions, its combination with existing personal enforcement measures could potentially yield results similar to, or even harsher than, the Steinitz plan, according to some reports. The IDF itself has reportedly deemed the recruitment target in the Kisch plan insufficient.
The economic implications are also significant. Bank of Israel estimated that increasing ultra-Orthodox conscription by 7,500 men annually could reduce the economic cost to the economy by at least 9 billion shekels per year. Conversely, the cost of frequent reserve duty call-ups has amounted to approximately 70 billion shekels over the past two years, a burden currently borne by the state and taxpayers due to the lack of ultra-Orthodox conscription.
