Israeli Leftist Academic Argues Socioeconomic Factors Drive Voting Patterns

Professor Danny Gutwein, a prominent Israeli leftist academic, argues that socioeconomic factors, not political ideology or security concerns, are the primary drivers of voting behavior in Israel. He likens himself to Cato the Elder, persistently advocating for a social democratic welfare state as the sole means to combat the prevailing neoliberal political order that he believes has entrenched Benjamin Netanyahu's rule.

Gutwein contends that Netanyahu systematically aims to transform Israel into a "sectocracy," a nation divided into sectors where only those loyal to Netanyahu receive state benefits, while others are abandoned. This strategy, he asserts, began forming around the 2011 social protests, gained momentum in 2015, and was significantly accelerated by the judicial overhaul announcement in January 2023. He dismisses the "Netanyahu trials" as a minor issue, arguing the core problem lies in the systematic distribution of benefits to Netanyahu's loyalist sectors, such as the Haredi and settler communities.

He criticizes the Israeli left for misinterpreting the political landscape, particularly by overemphasizing the judicial overhaul and Netanyahu's trials. Gutwein believes these are merely symptoms or facilitators of a deeper, long-standing neoliberal policy initiated by Menachem Begin in 1977, aimed at dismantling the welfare state. He explains that to overcome the contradiction of a right-wing party deriving support from lower socioeconomic classes, a sophisticated system of "compensation mechanisms" was developed, including settlements and benefits for the Haredi community, and more recently, "Torani" (religious Zionist) communities and a "loyalty" mechanism rewarding cities that support Netanyahu.

Gutwein's research, soon to be published in a book, suggests that these compensation mechanisms explain the rigid voting patterns in Israel. He points to socioeconomic clusters (4-7) as largely voting for the right, while higher clusters (8-10) lean left, and the poorest clusters (1-3) vote for Haredi and Arab parties. He argues that the left's "blindness" to these socioeconomic realities prevents them from understanding why Netanyahu maintains support, even after events like October 7th. He also introduces the concept of a "collapsing class", reservists, displaced individuals, and business owners severely impacted by the war and left without state support, as a new potential factor in future elections.

Gutwein suggests that political figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir are effective because they understand how to "sectarianize the periphery," appealing to the sense of security and belonging among lower-income and marginalized populations. He concludes that Israel needs its own "New Deal" focused on building a welfare state that provides equal opportunities and genuine social security, rather than relying on the current system of sectoral compensation.