Israeli Polls Face Scrutiny Over Accuracy and Bias

Israeli media is awash with public opinion polls during election periods, but their credibility is increasingly questioned in a politically polarized society. A recent analysis published in the "Journal of Palestinian Studies" highlights how poll results can vary or even contradict each other based on the media outlet's political leanings, raising doubts about their methodology and representative samples, especially as most are now conducted online rather than by phone.

Despite frequent inaccuracies in predicting election outcomes, these polls continue to influence voters, even though a majority of Israelis express skepticism. The practice of public opinion polling in Israel dates back to before the state's establishment, with David Ben-Gurion pioneering social surveys in the 1940s to inform policy and solidify his leadership and the Mapai party's ideological dominance. These early surveys collected detailed demographic, economic, and political data.

Today, polling has become a lucrative industry, with numerous companies operating in Israel. However, a significant portion of the Israeli public, over half according to various surveys, distrusts these polls. This skepticism is fueled by consistent failures to accurately predict election results, such as the 2015 Knesset elections where polls significantly underestimated the Likud party's victory and overestimated the Zionist Camp. Similar discrepancies were observed in the 2022 elections.

Challenges in achieving representative samples are significant. Many Israelis refuse to participate, and certain demographics, including Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews and immigrants from the former Soviet Union, are difficult to reach or engage. Arab citizens of Israel are also underrepresented, with pollsters citing difficulties in communication and a lack of trust. The shift towards online polling, while cost-effective, exacerbates these issues by excluding older populations and those less digitally connected.

Beyond election forecasting, polls are used outside of election periods to shape national consensus, particularly concerning security issues. Monthly surveys by institutions like Tel Aviv University's National Security Studies Institute, often featuring former military intelligence officials, focus on public trust in state institutions and attitudes towards security threats. Critics argue these polls can oversimplify complex issues, reinforce existing nationalistic sentiments, and unduly influence policymakers by framing certain positions as unchallengeable national consensus, thereby becoming tools for solidifying rather than reflecting reality.