Right-Wing Voters Express Stronger Election Optimism Than Left-Wing Counterparts

A new election barometer survey conducted by the Maagar Mochot institute for Arutz 7 reveals a significant gap in optimism between Israel's political blocs regarding election outcomes. Overall, 65% of right-wing bloc supporters are optimistic about the election results, compared to 52% among supporters of the "change bloc" (often associated with the center-left and center). On average, for every pessimistic respondent, there are four optimistic ones across most parties, but the right-wing bloc shows a notably higher ratio of six optimists for every pessimist.

The survey suggests this optimism gap may stem from current polling data, where some polls indicate the right-wing bloc could form a government independently. Conversely, even polls favoring the change bloc often require the inclusion of Arab parties to form a majority, a scenario many change bloc supporters may not desire or deem feasible. Researchers also noted a potential correlation, observed in international studies, between conservatism and higher optimism levels.

Optimism levels also appear to correlate with party size, with supporters of larger parties generally exhibiting more confidence. Likud supporters showed the highest optimism gap at 74 percentage points, followed by Yesh Atid at 56 points. Shas supporters also demonstrated significant optimism with a 54-point gap, despite the party's smaller size.

Parties like Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and Noam reported considerable optimism, though lower than the major parties, with gaps of 39, 42, and 38 points respectively. Notably, Noam supporters remain optimistic despite the party's low polling numbers, potentially reflecting broader bloc sentiment.

Respondents supporting centrist parties like Democrats, Benny Gantz's National Unity, and United Torah Judaism showed moderate optimism. At the lower end, supporters of Avi Winter's party and the "Haredi Public" party expressed less optimism. Interestingly, Yisrael Beiteinu supporters showed near-equal levels of optimism and pessimism, despite the party's stable polling.

The survey also found a clear trend of increasing optimism with age. While 46% of 18-24 year olds are optimistic, this figure rises to 59% among those aged 55-64, with a gap of 51 points between optimists and pessimists in that age group. This pattern held consistently for both men and women, aligning with psychological research suggesting optimism often increases through adulthood before potentially declining in very old age. Over a thousand respondents participated in the survey.