Yemen Developments Seen as Bad News for Israel
Israeli political and security officials, along with leading analysts, view recent developments in Yemen as detrimental to Israel's interests. A primary concern is the Houthi control over key points in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which solidifies the strength of the Iran-led "Shia axis." Iran now holds significant leverage over global trade through control or influence over both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb.
Analysts note a significant evolution in the Houthi movement. Once perceived mainly as a local Iranian proxy controlling parts of Yemen and threatening Gulf states, the Houthis have developed advanced military capabilities, operational experience, and regional ties. They have become a force capable of impacting international shipping lanes, requiring only strategic control near Bab el-Mandeb to exert influence.
This situation exacerbates global economic risks, contributing to rising oil prices. Limited navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, following a drone attack, are compounded by the Houthi presence in the Bab el-Mandeb and on Perim Island in the Red Sea.
Iran benefits from this scenario without direct military engagement, providing the Houthis with intelligence, weaponry, and political backing, thereby opening an additional front against its adversaries at a reduced cost. This strategic advantage for Iran is a major concern for Israel.
Furthermore, the current US stance is perceived as hesitant to engage, leaving allies unsupported. Analysts cite President Trump's statements suggesting the Houthis are not seeking conflict as a worrying retreat from global policing, potentially influenced by upcoming midterm elections and reported US military equipment and readiness issues. A past instance where the US declared war on the Houthis and then withdrew within weeks, leaving Israel to face them alone, is recalled. This leaves Saudi Arabia in a difficult position, caught between Iran and the Houthis, with limited defensive capabilities. Israel fears Saudi Arabia might seek closer ties with Iran or strengthen alliances with other regional powers like Turkey, Pakistan, and Qatar.
Despite the negative implications, the general assessment is that Israel should not intervene directly in Yemen at this stage. While Israel previously targeted Houthi leaders, it is now recognized that its assessment of the internal Yemeni power balance and the Houthis' true strength was inaccurate. Israel must prepare for the potential resumption of conflict, whether initiated by itself or through Houthi actions.