Newsru.co.il Adjusts Poll on Russian-Speaking Voters for Age Bias
The Israeli news outlet Newsru.co.il has re-evaluated its recent poll concerning the voting intentions of Russian-speaking immigrants, specifically adjusting for a significant age skew in its participant sample. The original poll surveyed 3,725 individuals with an average age of 64, and nearly all participants were first-generation immigrants, with only 12 born in Israel. To better reflect the likely voting patterns of first-generation Russian-speaking immigrants who will actually cast ballots in the October 27, 2026, Knesset elections, the outlet recalculated the results using an estimated average age of 59 for this demographic.
This adjusted age of 59 was derived by considering the age structure of "large aliyah" (waves of immigration) from the former Soviet Union, noting that by 2023, 25.5% of immigrants who arrived since 1990 were 65 or older. The outlet also factored in research indicating lower electoral activity among younger voters, suggesting the actual voting electorate is older than the general eligible population. The recalculation weighted participants in different age groups to achieve the 59-year average, without altering party preferences within each age bracket.
Following the age-based correction, the National Democratic Alliance (NDI) saw its support drop from 32% to 29%, while the Likud fell from 18% to 16%. Conversely, "Bayehad" increased from 9% to 11%, "Yashar" from 8% to 9%, and "Democrats" from 5% to 6%. The poll also adjusted preferences for prime minister, with Avigdor Lieberman's initial 28% support falling to 25%, nearly equaling Benjamin Netanyahu's adjusted 25% (down from 27%). Naftali Bennett received 16%, Gadi Eisenkot 11%, and Yair Golan 3%.
Newsru.co.il emphasized that this adjusted assessment is not a prediction for the entire Israeli electorate but rather an attempt to refine the poll's findings for first-generation Russian-speaking voters by addressing the most apparent bias. The outlet noted that while recent immigration waves are younger, they represent a smaller scale compared to the mass immigration of the 1990s.