Netanyahu's Survival Gambit: A Last Resort Amidst Regional Crises

The Israeli government, initially pursuing a policy of "quiet at all costs" until the October 7th attacks, has now shifted to "war at all costs" without a clear political objective, according to analyst Israel Ziv. This shift, Ziv argues, is a strategic misstep that is eroding both military achievements and a crucial regional opportunity.

The article criticizes the government's narrative of "deduction," which deflects blame for the October 7th failures onto "weak" individuals rather than acknowledging systemic issues. This, Ziv contends, prevents learning from mistakes and leads to repeating them, albeit in reverse. The Defense Minister's focus on Hezbollah, after failing to disarm them, is highlighted as an example of this flawed approach, neglecting a potential framework agreement with Lebanon that could have fostered cooperation against the organization.

Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels have completed their takeover of Yemeni coastlines and key islands in the Bab al-Mandab strait, a vital global shipping lane. This development, occurring while the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, creates a significant chokehold on international supply chains, impacting countries from Saudi Arabia and Egypt to China and Europe, and effectively paralyzing Israel's southern port of Eilat.

Ziv suggests that Israel, under different political circumstances, could have leveraged this crisis to lead a technological and operational effort to reopen the strait, transforming military capability into significant political capital. Instead, the current "messianic coalition" relies on rhetoric that fails to impress beyond its base. The author concludes that the government's failures, including its role in the rise of Hamas, the October 7th disaster, and the current security situation in Gaza and Lebanon, have set Israel back decades, with the remaining weeks before the 2026 elections offering little hope for capitalizing on dwindling opportunities.