Professor Warns of Israeli Concessions Amidst US Push for Regional Stability
Professor Eyal Zisser, an expert on the Syrian and Lebanese arenas, stated that negotiations with Lebanon are expected to resume despite Lebanon's inability to confront Hezbollah. He believes Israel is appeasing the United States, which is focused on achieving regional stability and peace. Zisser explained that American pressure, rather than allowing Israel to complete its mission, led to a ceasefire and ongoing pressure on Israel to withdraw forces and enable the Lebanese government and army to take Hezbollah's place.
According to Zisser, the Americans are deceiving themselves or relying on long-term processes, expecting things to improve in the future, but in the interim, Israel will face difficulties. He noted that for this to happen, Israel must cease attacks, a policy it has largely adopted, with minimal friction on the border and some territorial withdrawals to give the Lebanese army a chance to deal with Hezbollah. However, Zisser asserted that in reality, nothing is happening because Hezbollah is not a regular army but local fighters who are also weapons caches. The Lebanese army is unwilling to confront them, leading to a stalemate.
Zisser addressed the explosion of the Ali Taher ridge, stating that the Americans do not view it as problematic because the area was under Israeli control before the ceasefire was defined, and there is no civilian population there. He also commented on the upcoming meeting between Israeli and Lebanese negotiation teams, suggesting it's not merely a show, as both sides have a shared interest in weakening Hezbollah. This could allow progress on issues like border demarcation, which has been stalled. However, fundamental progress is difficult as long as Israel insists on no advancement until Hezbollah is disarmed.
Regarding a statement by a Christian Lebanese parliamentarian advocating for peace with Israel as a Lebanese interest, Zisser suggested that while such a statement would have required courage in the past, it can now be made more easily given Israel's actions against Hezbollah.
